Uncertainty is setting in, with the risk of further economic slowdowns caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

The economy is experiencing the fluctuating consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. After a sharp decline in the second quarter, the economy is now experiencing a gradual recovery.^issue quarter, falling to as low as -20 % in some countries, the 3^issue The second quarter saw a significant rebound. For the moment, uncertainty hangs over the end of the year. Global GDP is expected to fall by around 4.5% in 2020, while France's GDP could fall by between 9% and 10% over the year.

However, forecasts for France in 2021 (Banque de France, PLF, etc.) are positive: GDP growth between +7.1% and +8.1%, inflation limited to between +0.5% and +0.9%, investment at +15%, stable interest rates and low oil prices. The only unfavourable indicator is the unemployment rate, which is expected to rise to 11.1%. The French economy is expected to return to its pre-crisis level in 2022.

The TRM, which has been severely affected, is also rebounding, but without a sustained return to 2019 levels. Uncertainty surrounding the end of the year could result in significant downward pressure.