{"id":11983,"date":"2020-10-14T10:03:43","date_gmt":"2020-10-14T10:03:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cnr.v2.mila.celaneo.com\/publications\/perspectives-economiques-et-couts-du-trm-octobre-2020\/"},"modified":"2025-09-24T10:56:02","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T10:56:02","slug":"perspectives-economiques-et-couts-du-trm-octobre-2020","status":"publish","type":"publications","link":"https:\/\/cnr.v2.mila.celaneo.com\/en\/archives\/publications\/perspectives-economiques-et-couts-du-trm-octobre-2020","title":{"rendered":"Economic Outlook and TRM Costs \u2013 October 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

Uncertainty is setting in, with the risk of further economic slowdowns caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The economy is experiencing the fluctuating consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. After a sharp decline in the second quarter, the economy is now experiencing a gradual recovery.issue<\/sup> quarter, falling to as low as -20 % in some countries, the 3issue<\/sup> The second quarter saw a significant rebound. For the moment, uncertainty hangs over the end of the year. Global GDP is expected to fall by around 4.5% in 2020, while France's GDP could fall by between 9% and 10% over the year.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

However, forecasts for France in 2021 (Banque de France, PLF, etc.) are positive: GDP growth between +7.1% and +8.1%, inflation limited to between +0.5% and +0.9%, investment at +15%, stable interest rates and low oil prices. The only unfavourable indicator is the unemployment rate, which is expected to rise to 11.1%. The French economy is expected to return to its pre-crisis level in 2022.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The TRM, which has been severely affected, is also rebounding, but without a sustained return to 2019 levels. Uncertainty surrounding the end of the year could result in significant downward pressure.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Uncertainty is setting in, with the risk of further economic slowdowns caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The economy is suffering the fluctuating consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. After a sharp decline in the second quarter, which could reach as much as -20% in some countries, the third quarter has seen a significant rebound. For [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","prix_ht":null,"acces_payant":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[231],"tags":[525,370,385,540,375,584,586,358,373,583,288,585,263],"class_list":["post-11983","publications","type-publications","status-publish","hentry","category-conjoncture","tag-525","tag-conjoncture","tag-couts","tag-crise-sanitaire","tag-economie","tag-incertitudes","tag-mondial","tag-perspectives","tag-pib","tag-prevision","tag-salaires","tag-tendance","tag-trm"],"blocksy_meta":[],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":false,"thumbnail":false,"medium":false,"medium_large":false,"large":false,"1536x1536":false,"2048x2048":false,"trp-custom-language-flag":false},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"admin admin","author_link":"https:\/\/cnr.v2.mila.celaneo.com\/en\/archives\/author\/celaneo3"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"L\u2019incertitude s\u2019installe avec un risque de nouveaux coups de frein pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie provoqu\u00e9s par une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie de covid\u201119 toujours active. L\u2019\u00e9conomie subit les cons\u00e9quences fluctuantes de l\u2019activit\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de covid-19. Apr\u00e8s une chute brutale au 2\u00e8me trimestre, pouvant descendre jusqu\u2019\u00e0 \u201120 % dans certains pays, le 3\u00e8me trimestre est marqu\u00e9 par un rebond important. Pour…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cnr.v2.mila.celaneo.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publications\/11983","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cnr.v2.mila.celaneo.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publications"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cnr.v2.mila.celaneo.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publications"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cnr.v2.mila.celaneo.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cnr.v2.mila.celaneo.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publications\/11983\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13365,"href":"https:\/\/cnr.v2.mila.celaneo.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publications\/11983\/revisions\/13365"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cnr.v2.mila.celaneo.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cnr.v2.mila.celaneo.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cnr.v2.mila.celaneo.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}